USDA Corn and Soybean Forecast for 2024/2025 - August 2024

Here are highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by USDA on August 12:

Corn

• World corn production for 2024/25 is projected at around 1,219.8 million tonnes, down 0.3% from 2023/24, which was last estimated at 1,223.8 million tonnes.

• Production in the United States is estimated at 384.7 million tonnes, down 1.3% from the previous year (389.7 million tonnes), while Chinese production is expected to increase 1.1% to 292 million tonnes. Europe is expected to decline 1.6% to 60.5 million tonnes. Ukraine's production is expected at 27.2 million tonnes, down 16.3% from the previous year (32.5 million tonnes).

• For Brazil, it is expected to reach 127 million tons, up 4.1% from 2023/2024 (122 million tons), while for Argentina, production is estimated at 51 million tons, up 2% from the previous crop year.

• World corn exports are expected to fall 4.5%, from 200.6 million tonnes to 191.5 million tonnes in the new season.

• The United States will lead exports with 58.4 million tonnes, up 2.2% from last season, followed by Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine with 49, 36 and 24 million tonnes.

• China's corn demand is expected to remain unchanged at 23 million tonnes for the new crop year, while the European Union will import 18 million tonnes, down 7.7% from 2023/24 (19.5 million tonnes).

• Ending stocks will fall 0.5% globally to 310.2 million tonnes. Stocks in the United States will increase by 11.7%, while those in Brazil and Ukraine will fall by 26% and 53.2%, respectively.

Soybeans

• World soybean production in 2024/25 is expected to increase by 8.5% compared to the previous season, from 395.1 to 428.7 million tons.

• Production estimates in South America show Brazil increasing by 10.5% to 169 million tonnes, while Argentina is expected to increase by 4.1% to 51 million tonnes.

• Paraguayan production is expected to increase by 1.9% compared to 2023/24 (10.5 million tons), reaching 10.7 million tons.

• US production is expected to reach 124.9 million tonnes, up 10.2% from the previous crop of 113.3 million tonnes.

• Brazil leads the way with an estimated 105 million tonnes, similar to the 2023/24 figure. The United States is expected to export 50.3 million tonnes, up 8.8% from the previous season (46.3 million tonnes).

• Argentina is expected to export 4.5 million tons, which is down 19.6% compared to the previous crop year (5.6 million tons).

• China is expected to import 109 million tons, down 2.2% from the previous crop year (111.5 million tons).

• Global oilseed ending stocks are expected to rise 19.5% to 134.3 million tonnes, supported by stock increases in Argentina, the United States and Brazil.

Source: http://www.3tres3.com/vn